College Football Predictions: Paving the way for Friday's semi-finals
Alabama Crimson Tide Football - Cincinnati Bearcats Football - College Football Playoff - Cotton Bowl Classic -American Football
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Bowl in Arlington, Texas, at 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, while No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia will finish things up at the Orange Bowl in Miami with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The winners, of course, will face off in the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 10.
Who will prevail in the CFP semifinals? A trio of Sports Illustrated college football writers preview each game, complete with score predictions and their pick for game MVP.
Kevin D. Lile/Sports Illustrated (Young); Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated (Ford); Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports (Hutchinson); Gary Cosby Jr./USA TODAY Sports (Dean)
Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati vs Alabama
Pat Fordy: Alabama 24, Cincinnati 13
Nick Saban has a history of not only beating opponents, but dominating them in the college football semifinals. Since losing his first win in 2014, Saban's semi-final win margin has averaged 20.2 points. But don't expect a blast here, in a match between the top 10 defenses.
Don't let the Power 5 and Group of 5 designations reduce this to an overly simple formula. I don't feel like this game is a match for me. Cincinnati has a veteran team that has won 23 of its last 24 games, with the only loss to score a long field goal by Georgia at the end of last year's Peach Bowl. Bearcats will not be intimidated and will not beat themselves.
Their biggest problem will be how their offensive line will hold up against Will Anderson Jr. and Company. Fortunately for them, they have a moving midfielder in Desmond Ryder, who can have most of their offensive game plan on his shoulders as a runner and passer. He'll have to make some plays outside of the text, as well as deliver the ball quickly when the readings and roads are open.
Defensively, Cincinnati has good players in all three tiers and gets along well with Alabama. Cornerbacks Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and Coby Bryant are future pros, and Crimson Tide down one of the two biggest receivers with John Metchie III injured. The only difference maker is, of course, Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, who revealed his full talent for tearing up Georgia in a Southeastern Conference championship match. If Young plays at that level again, Bama won't stop.
It should also be noted that after years of trouble in place, Saban has a huge advantage on the field against Luke Fickell and Cincinnati. Will Reichard has scored 16 field goals out of 20 this season and has been perfect for placements in 2020. The Bearcats have tried three different players and have scored just seven of their 17 field goals, missing the last four. Expect to see Cincinnati go to him fourth down more often if he reaches what appears to be his normal field goal range.
Ford's Choice Player of the Game: Alabama LB Will Anderson Jr.
He's the strongest disrupting force in the country, with 32.5 tackles to lose this season. Take it up against a functional but not great offensive line, and Anderson could have a great day. Cincinnati will have to plan away from Anderson, which is tricky because he can line up in a number of places. Customizing additional blockers to deal with is the only solution, and it won't be a complete solution.
Ross Dillinger: Alabama 30, Cincinnati 14
Isn't this the final showdown between David and Goliath? The Bearcats represent the young men in the sport and are trying to become the first non-power conference (or Notre Dame) team to win everything since BYU in 1984.
The school claims 16 conference titles - two times fewer than Alabama's 18 national championships. Just a few years ago, Cincinnati won eight joint games in two years (2016-2017), and now here it is on the biggest stage in college football, a remarkable feat that took some breaks this year (three Power 5 champions have several losses).
This is an old Alabama hat, of course. For the eleventh time in 13 years, the Crimson Tide team found themselves in a position to win a national championship (they won six of them). This rivalry presents the greatest dynasty in sports history, led by perhaps the greatest coach, against a program with little real champion pedigree and nowhere near as talented. In the last four signature seasons, the tides have signed 86 predictions that are rated four or five stars. Cincinnati signed five.
That doesn't mean Bearcats don't stand a chance. Alabama has lived on the brink this season. In a way, it's amazing that coach Nick Saban's crew is here. She needed an amazing upset for Georgia in the SEC Championship match. If it's a Tide play like it did in Atlanta, Cincinnati has no chance. If Tide plays like they did against Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn, the Bearcats could win.
Dellenger's Choice MVP: Alabama QB Bryce Young
Heisman Cup winner will experience coach Luke Fickell's high school senior in a way that hasn't been tested this year.
Richard Johnson: Alabama 38, Cincinnati 20
At the end of the day, this game will be reduced to matches. And can Cincinnati really match what the tides bring to the table? In the trenches, Cincinnati has a chance to hang on to the defense, but outside of Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Bama makes issues for the rest of the minor Bearcats—particularly those interested in playing heavyman defense. Cincy's Special Offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with a track encounter.
Johnson's MVP Choice: Bryce Young
With an amazing ability to scramble and lengthen plays, Young will wow broken plays and make it clear that there will be no Heisman hangover.
Orange Bowl: Michigan vs Georgia
Fordy: Georgia 21, Michigan 17
The pre-game speech centered on Michigan's award-winning offensive line colliding against Georgia's formidable, physical seventh defensive fronts. Wolverines are ranked 10th nationally in lunge attack, and Bulldogs are ranked 2nd nationally in lunge defense. These numbers will be a tough competition at the point of attack.
"It's going to be a train wreck inside," said Josh Gates, the Michigan attack coordinator.
"Michigan plays football," Georgia defense coordinator Dan Lanning said. "They're running tough football. They're demanding some fitness up front, and I know we're excited to see it." The Bulldogs are excited to see him because the only team that beat them - and significantly weakened that defense - did so through the air. The Alabama quarterback and Heisman Cup winner Bryce Young had a sensational throw and dribble from pressure.
Cady McNamara, while a very good midfielder, is not Bryce Young. If Haskins Haskins and Blake Corum can't run a running game against a brick wall defense, expect the Wolverines to need some Plan B attack options, find some big plays in the passing game and through misdirection or hardware schemes. This is not at all possible. Michigan leads the nation in plays of 50 yards or more (17), but Georgia has given up one round of 30 yards or more all season. The best way to hurt Dawgs was with a fast paced attack, which isn't in the Wolverines' command room.
For Georgia, the offensive burden falls on quarterback Stetson Bennett, who has been in doubt since the moment he arrived at school as a marcher in 2017. Bennett has to maintain his wits and avoid blunders while under duress from Michigan rush ends Aidan Hutchinson (Heisman runner-up) and David Ojabo. Bulldogs have a high quality offensive line and may be able to create some creases on the ground to get a deep hold of their running backs.
Put it all together and these numbers to be a defense-dominated game - not a lot of points or explosive plays. Field position is important. Transitions will be the key. Georgia will be a little better in the end.
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Bowl in Arlington, Texas, at 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, while No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia will finish things up at the Orange Bowl in Miami with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The winners, of course, will face off in the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 10.
Who will prevail in the CFP semifinals? A trio of Sports Illustrated college football writers preview each game, complete with score predictions and their pick for game MVP.
|
| Kevin D. Lile/Sports Illustrated (Young); Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated (Ford); Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports (Hutchinson); Gary Cosby Jr./USA TODAY Sports (Dean) |
Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati vs Alabama
Pat Fordy: Alabama 24, Cincinnati 13
Nick Saban has a history of not only beating opponents, but dominating them in the college football semifinals. Since losing his first win in 2014, Saban's semi-final win margin has averaged 20.2 points. But don't expect a blast here, in a match between the top 10 defenses.
Don't let the Power 5 and Group of 5 designations reduce this to an overly simple formula. I don't feel like this game is a match for me. Cincinnati has a veteran team that has won 23 of its last 24 games, with the only loss to score a long field goal by Georgia at the end of last year's Peach Bowl. Bearcats will not be intimidated and will not beat themselves.
Their biggest problem will be how their offensive line will hold up against Will Anderson Jr. and Company. Fortunately for them, they have a moving midfielder in Desmond Ryder, who can have most of their offensive game plan on his shoulders as a runner and passer. He'll have to make some plays outside of the text, as well as deliver the ball quickly when the readings and roads are open.
Defensively, Cincinnati has good players in all three tiers and gets along well with Alabama. Cornerbacks Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and Coby Bryant are future pros, and Crimson Tide down one of the two biggest receivers with John Metchie III injured. The only difference maker is, of course, Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, who revealed his full talent for tearing up Georgia in a Southeastern Conference championship match. If Young plays at that level again, Bama won't stop.
It should also be noted that after years of trouble in place, Saban has a huge advantage on the field against Luke Fickell and Cincinnati. Will Reichard has scored 16 field goals out of 20 this season and has been perfect for placements in 2020. The Bearcats have tried three different players and have scored just seven of their 17 field goals, missing the last four. Expect to see Cincinnati go to him fourth down more often if he reaches what appears to be his normal field goal range.
Ford's Choice Player of the Game: Alabama LB Will Anderson Jr.
He's the strongest disrupting force in the country, with 32.5 tackles to lose this season. Take it up against a functional but not great offensive line, and Anderson could have a great day. Cincinnati will have to plan away from Anderson, which is tricky because he can line up in a number of places. Customizing additional blockers to deal with is the only solution, and it won't be a complete solution.
Ross Dillinger: Alabama 30, Cincinnati 14
Isn't this the final showdown between David and Goliath? The Bearcats represent the young men in the sport and are trying to become the first non-power conference (or Notre Dame) team to win everything since BYU in 1984.
The school claims 16 conference titles - two times fewer than Alabama's 18 national championships. Just a few years ago, Cincinnati won eight joint games in two years (2016-2017), and now here it is on the biggest stage in college football, a remarkable feat that took some breaks this year (three Power 5 champions have several losses).
This is an old Alabama hat, of course. For the eleventh time in 13 years, the Crimson Tide team found themselves in a position to win a national championship (they won six of them). This rivalry presents the greatest dynasty in sports history, led by perhaps the greatest coach, against a program with little real champion pedigree and nowhere near as talented. In the last four signature seasons, the tides have signed 86 predictions that are rated four or five stars. Cincinnati signed five.
That doesn't mean Bearcats don't stand a chance. Alabama has lived on the brink this season. In a way, it's amazing that coach Nick Saban's crew is here. She needed an amazing upset for Georgia in the SEC Championship match. If it's a Tide play like it did in Atlanta, Cincinnati has no chance. If Tide plays like they did against Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn, the Bearcats could win.
Dellenger's Choice MVP: Alabama QB Bryce Young
Heisman Cup winner will experience coach Luke Fickell's high school senior in a way that hasn't been tested this year.
Richard Johnson: Alabama 38, Cincinnati 20
At the end of the day, this game will be reduced to matches. And can Cincinnati really match what the tides bring to the table? In the trenches, Cincinnati has a chance to hang on to the defense, but outside of Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Bama makes issues for the rest of the minor Bearcats—particularly those interested in playing heavyman defense. Cincy's Special Offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with a track encounter.
Johnson's MVP Choice: Bryce Young
With an amazing ability to scramble and lengthen plays, Young will wow broken plays and make it clear that there will be no Heisman hangover.
Orange Bowl: Michigan vs Georgia
Fordy: Georgia 21, Michigan 17
The pre-game speech centered on Michigan's award-winning offensive line colliding against Georgia's formidable, physical seventh defensive fronts. Wolverines are ranked 10th nationally in lunge attack, and Bulldogs are ranked 2nd nationally in lunge defense. These numbers will be a tough competition at the point of attack.
"It's going to be a train wreck inside," said Josh Gates, the Michigan attack coordinator.
"Michigan plays football," Georgia defense coordinator Dan Lanning said. "They're running tough football. They're demanding some fitness up front, and I know we're excited to see it." The Bulldogs are excited to see him because the only team that beat them - and significantly weakened that defense - did so through the air. The Alabama quarterback and Heisman Cup winner Bryce Young had a sensational throw and dribble from pressure.
Cady McNamara, while a very good midfielder, is not Bryce Young. If Haskins Haskins and Blake Corum can't run a running game against a brick wall defense, expect the Wolverines to need some Plan B attack options, find some big plays in the passing game and through misdirection or hardware schemes. This is not at all possible. Michigan leads the nation in plays of 50 yards or more (17), but Georgia has given up one round of 30 yards or more all season. The best way to hurt Dawgs was with a fast paced attack, which isn't in the Wolverines' command room.
For Georgia, the offensive burden falls on quarterback Stetson Bennett, who has been in doubt since the moment he arrived at school as a marcher in 2017. Bennett has to maintain his wits and avoid blunders while under duress from Michigan rush ends Aidan Hutchinson (Heisman runner-up) and David Ojabo. Bulldogs have a high quality offensive line and may be able to create some creases on the ground to get a deep hold of their running backs.
Put it all together and these numbers to be a defense-dominated game - not a lot of points or explosive plays. Field position is important. Transitions will be the key. Georgia will be a little better in the end.
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